GDP

3200

Real GDP in 2030, $B (2026$). Anchor for all macro calcs. Sourced from Treasury MYEFO Dec 2025 trajectory (Australia ~$2.8T 2024 + ~3% p.a. growth → ~$3.2T 2030). All subsequent years compound from here via realGrowth + agiProdBonus × af.

POP_A

23.4

Adult population in 2030, millions. Per ABS projection series B (medium fertility, medium net migration).

POP_C

6.6

Child population in 2030, millions. Same projection. Total 30.0M, growing to 31.5M by 2035.

BASE_EMP

≈13.45

Total 2030 employment, derived from INDUSTRIES.reduce() over per-industry employment. Used as denominator for displacement %. Model total of 13.45M vs ABS actual ~14.3M; gap is informal/gig workers.

WAGE_GROWTH_SHARE

0.50

Fraction of real GDP growth flowing to wages (rest → profits/super/other). 50% reflects the post-2000 wage share trend. Per RBA wages-and-productivity research; sensitivity not modelled but materially affects medium-run income tax.

PASSTHROUGH

0.65

Share of labour-cost saving that flows to consumer prices (deflation). Was 0.60 in v5.2; raised to 0.65 in v6+. Calibrated against historical productivity-event evidence (telecoms 1995-2010, retail logistics 2000-2015) where ~60-70% of cost saving became price reduction in competitive markets. Key parameter — directly determines AGI's deflationary impact on prices and PP.

PROFIT_SHARE

0.20

Share of labour-cost saving captured as additional corporate profit (taxed at compRate). Was 0.15 in v5.2; raised to 0.20 in v6+. Counterpart to PASSTHROUGH. Together (65% + 20% + 15%) accounts for 100% of labour cost saving.

AI_IMPORT_SHARE

0.15

Share of labour-cost saving paid to overseas AI-service providers (mostly US compute/model providers). Reduces domestic-economy benefit. New in Draft 6.0. Important for revenue calcs — that 15% leaves the domestic tax base entirely. Sensitive to AGI-supplier nationality assumptions.

EMPLOYER_SUPER_RATE

0.115

11.5% Australian Superannuation Guarantee. Used to compute employer's super contribution savings when displaced workers exit. Will rise to 12% in 2025-26 per legislation; current value reflects 2024-25 statutory rate.

EXISTING_DEBT

2050

Whole-of-government gross debt (Cwlth + State + Territory) at start of transition, $B. Per PBO 2025-26 NFO: national gross debt reaches 57.5% of GDP (~$1,905B) in 2028-29; projected forward to 2030 with continued borrowing ~$2,050B. Anchor for debt-to-GDP computation; all transition deficits accumulate against this. Uses gross not net to avoid double-counting asset returns that already appear in non-tax revenue.

INTEREST_RATE

0.04

4% blended cost of borrowing. Mid-range Treasury 10-yr bond yield 2020-2025. Applied uniformly to debt; doesn't track inflation or risk premia.

DOMESTIC_DEBT_SHARE

0.55

55% of debt held by private domestic investors (excluding intra-government). Per Treasury debt management statistics. Lower than the ~70% share of net debt because government financial assets are predominantly domestic. Affects how debt-servicing dollars circulate domestically vs leak overseas.

ABOLISHED_TRANSFERS

153

$B/yr current transfers (welfare, pensions, family payments, JobSeeker) all abolished day 1 of GDI introduction. Per Treasury Budget 2024-25 transfer-payment categories that are entirely replaced by GDI. Major fiscal saving — but note GDI cost typically dwarfs this.

transitionCosts

25

$B/yr fixed cost: retraining programs, social cohesion initiatives, communication campaigns. Applies for all 6 transition years. Loose calibration; could be 15-50 depending on programme scope. Modest sensitivity. Local constant inside calcModel.

SUPER_POOL

6000

$B former superannuation pool taken over by gov't-managed investment fund at 2030. Per APRA superannuation-industry stats Dec 2024 ($3.7T) + 5% p.a. growth → ~$6T 2030. Big number — fund returns and reinvestment are a major revenue line.

FUND_RETURN_RATE

0.05

5% real annual return on fund assets. Conservative vs historical balanced-fund returns (~7% nominal, ~4-5% real). Used for non-wage income tax base.

FUND_SPEND_DRAWDOWN

0.03

3% annual capital drawdown by retirees and pension drawdown. Reduces fund pool over time. Consistent with minimum drawdown rates under current Australian super regs (4-7% age-graded).

BASE_NON_WAGE_INCOME

160

$B/yr from non-fund sources: small-business income ($90B), non-fund investment ($45B), domestic debt interest (~$25B). Per ABS National Accounts. Adds to fund income for the non-wage-income tax base.

Fund reinvestment rate

0.30

30% of after-tax fund returns reinvested back into the fund pool each year. Embedded in calcModel as fundReinvest = afterTaxFundReturns * 0.30. Drives pool dynamics: $6.0T → ~$5.3T over 6 years (vs $5.0T without reinvestment).

gdp

1.0 - 10.0

Industry's % of GDP. From ABS industry value-added stats. Sums to ~92% of total GDP (missing 8% = product taxes + imputed rent, correctly excluded).

emp

0.15 - 2.00

Industry's employment level (M employees). From ABS labour-force-by-industry data. Sums to 13.45M total.

labInt

0.20 - 0.70

Labour intensity — labour cost as % of industry value-added. Key driver of variable RST/GST rate via the wage-ratio formula. Education 0.70 (most labour-intensive); Mining 0.20 (most capital-intensive).

maxAGI

0.25 - 0.85

Industry-specific upper bound on AGI displacement at full adoption. Speculative. IT/telecom 0.85 (most automatable), Construction 0.25 (least). Most uncertain inputs — small changes produce large revenue effects per §9 sensitivity discussion.

exp

0.00 - 0.85

Export share of output. Mining 0.85 (mostly exported); Public admin 0.00 (purely domestic). Affects domestic-tax-base size.

gov

0.00 - 1.00

Government final-consumption share. Public admin 1.00 (entirely government), Health care 0.70, Education 0.60; private services 0.05-0.15.

ret

0.00 - 0.95

Retail/household-final share for variable RST/GST. Retail 0.95, Hospitality 0.80; Mining 0.00. Per §9.62: functions as broad-based VAT including currently-exempt categories (financial 40%, IT 35%).

1

0.10

35,000

180

PT, casual

2

0.15

55,000

230

Mid-PT or low FT

3

0.25

80,000

250

FT median area (ATO p50 ~$96K FT)

4

0.20

105,000

250

FT p60-p70

5

0.15

140,000

250

FT p80 ~$141K

6

0.10

175,000

250

FT p90 ~$174K, just into top bracket

7

0.04

250,000

250

FT p95+

8

0.01

450,000

250

FT p99+

Healthcare

250

0.20

50.0

Patient care dominates; admin/diagnostics amenable

Education

130

0.40

52.0

AI tutoring, content creation, admin

Defence

55

0.15

8.25

Operations dominate; embedded AI not modelled

Infrastructure

80

0.10

8.0

Construction-heavy; limited AI reach

Public admin & safety

180

0.35

63.0

Information-processing-heavy

Aged care (non-GDI)

100

0.15

15.0

Direct care dominates

NDIS & disability svcs

55

0.10

5.5

Disability support

Other govt services

147

0.20

29.4

Mixed

Total

997

0.234 (weighted avg)

231

Yields ~$162B/yr at 70% govtEffCap

Fuel excise

18

−0.70

FE

Sharply down with EV uptake

Tobacco excise

7

−0.20

FE

Revised down from $15B reflecting illicit market collapse

Alcohol excise

6

−0.05

FE

Modest

Customs duties

16

−0.15

FE

Lower as imports rebalance to AGI-services

Other fed indirect

16

−0.10

FE

Aggregated remainder

Stamp duties

31

−0.15

SL

Slowing property turnover

Land tax

16

+0.05

SL

Corrected down from PBO actuals

Gambling taxes

10

−0.10

SL

Corrected up from PBO actuals

Motor vehicle taxes

15

−0.40

SL

Heavy decline with EV/autonomous

Insurance levies

9

−0.05

SL

Broken out from former "Other state/local"

Municipal rates

24

+0.03

SL

Broken out; rises slightly

Other state/local taxes

8

−0.10

SL

Residual

Federal non-tax revenue

65

+0.10

FN

Future Fund returns, GBE dividends, fees

State/local non-tax

55

−0.15

SN

Includes mining royalties

Total (OTHER_REV_BASE)

≈302

Per OTHER_REV_ITEMS.reduce. Items scale with real GDP growth; AGI effects scale with adoption × sensitivity slider.

2030

0%

Pre-AGI baseline

2031

10%

Early adoption, mostly piloting

2032

30%

Acceleration

2033

55%

Mid-transition (steepest year)

2034

80%

Saturation approaching

2035

100%

Full AGI penetration

Population growth

+1.5M over 6 years

Linear growth from 30M to 31.5M (popTotal = (POP_A + POP_C) + 1.5 * frac). ABS series B baseline.

Adult share start

0.78

Adults as fraction of total population in 2030.

Adult share end

0.795

Adults as fraction in 2035 (0.78 + 0.015 * frac). Reflects ageing population.

IU

1.04

4% income uplift to 2026 dollars from earlier-year HH_TYPES baseline. Applied to w1, w2, cw, invInc, si. Reflects ABS WPI growth from 2024 to 2026. Transfers (ct) and super pension (cs) left at nominal.

CC (Couple + children)

4

2,970

CN (Couple, no children)

5

2,540

LP (Lone parent)

3

1,050

LS (Lone person / single)

6

2,640

OT (Other)

2

780

HI (High income, ATO-derived; Draft 11.9)

4

500

RV (Renter variants, hhK=0; for comparison)

4

0

Couple+kids: senior prof

200

~$295K

0.55

Couple no kids: senior prof

100

~$290K

0.55

Specialist / senior partner

150

~$405K

0.45

Top exec / partner

50

~$605K

0.35

HH_BASKET_BY_QUINTILE

3 × 18 array (3 bands × 18 industries; each row sums to 1.0)

ABS HES 2015-16 expenditure tilts mapped to 18 IO industries via hand-built mapping (see quintile_design.py).

HH_QCONS_SHARE

[0.2316, 0.1855, 0.5829]

Share of total household consumption from each band. Derived from ABS SIH quintile income shares × spend rate, normalised.

0 (Low)

< $75K

Q1 + Q2

1 (Mid)

$75K – $115K

Q3

2 (High)

≥ $115K

Q4 + Q5

Q1

< $45K

100% (capped; actually dissaves)

Q2

$45K – $75K

92%

Q3

$75K – $115K

85%

Q4

$115K – $170K

78%

Q5

≥ $170K

67%

$0 – $18,200

0%

$18,201 – $45,000

16%

$45,001 – $135,000

30%

$135,001 – $190,000

37%

$190,001+

45%

b2bShare[i][j]

Proportion of sector i's output purchased by sector j as intermediate input

hhShare[i]

Proportion to household final consumption

otherFinalShare[i]

Proportion to other final demand (gov + investment + exports)

exportShare[i]

Proportion to exports specifically

otherFinalNonExportShare[i]

Other final demand minus exports (gov + investment)

b2bShareSum[i]

Row sum of b2bShare (total intermediate use share)

vaShare[i]

Value-added share of gross output (converts GVA to gross output)

Job density

4.5

applyInvestmentResponse

4500 jobs per $B of investment activity, calibrated from Construction/Manufacturing/Professional services ABS data. Used to compute investEmp = totalInvest * 4.5 / 1000.

Capital-goods profit margin

0.12

applyInvestmentResponse

12% margin on capital-goods producers. Used for investCompTax. Mid-range industry-average for capital-goods manufacturing.

Investment representative wage

$80,000

applyInvestmentResponse

The "average" investment-driven worker. Calibrated to Construction/Manufacturing/Prof svcs blended median.

Investment representative days

250

applyInvestmentResponse

Full-time work days for new investment workers.

Voluntary-exit representative wage

$55,000

applyVoluntaryWithdrawal

The "average" exiting worker — lower than investment because UBI evidence shows exits skew toward low-wage and secondary earners.

Voluntary-exit representative days

230

applyVoluntaryWithdrawal

Mid PT/FT (vs 250 for investment which is FT-heavy).

Spending rate of disposable income

0.85

both

85% of disposable income spent (vs saved). Used for GST flow calcs. Matches v6 macro consShare 60 after derived calculations.

Profit shift growth coefficient

0.5

applyTaxArbitrage Channel B

effProfitShift = profitShiftRate × (1 + 0.5 × af). At full adoption (af=1.0), profit shifting is 1.5× baseline. The 0.5 reflects "AGI makes IP/services moderately easier to misprice" — bounded growth.

children

0

Children in household

rent

0

Annual rent $

hasA2

false

Whether household has a second adult

a1w

82,000

Adult 1 annual wage

a1nw

3,000

Adult 1 annual non-wage income

a1s

150,000

Adult 1 super balance

a1t

0

Adult 1 current-system transfer

a1hr

42

Adult 1 hourly rate ($)

a1h

[8,8,8,8,8,0,0]

Adult 1 hours by day-of-week

a2w

45,000

Adult 2 annual wage

a2nw

1,000

Adult 2 annual non-wage income

a2s

80,000

Adult 2 super balance

a2t

0

Adult 2 current-system transfer

a2hr

38

Adult 2 hourly rate ($)

a2h

[6,6,6,6,0,0,0]

Adult 2 hours by day-of-week

Adult GDI start

80

0

250

5

$/day in 2030

Guaranteed Daily Income for adults at start of transition (2030). Replaces all welfare/pension/unemployment payments. Each adult receives this regardless of work status.

Adult GDI end

105

0

250

5

$/day in 2035

Adult GDI rate at end of transition. Linearly interpolated between start and end. Higher values increase fiscal burden but reduce inequality.

Child GDI start

20

0

200

5

$/day in 2030

Per-child GDI rate at start. Replaces all child-related transfers. Paid to parent/guardian. Lower than adult to reflect lower per-child expenditure needs.

Child GDI end

45

0

200

5

$/day in 2035

Per-child GDI rate at 2035. Family with 2 kids gets 2× this/day on top of adult GDI.

Base RST/GST

12

10

25

1

%

Fixed base GST rate, applied uniformly to all consumption. Stacks with the variable AGI levy. Higher rates raise revenue but are mildly regressive.

Household consumption

60

35

70

1

% of GDP

Total household consumption as % of GDP (national-accounts basis). Higher values raise macro RST/GST collections.

Company tax

30

20

40

1

%

Standard company tax rate on profits. Higher rates raise revenue but increase incentive for profit-shifting. Mid-OECD: ~24%. v12.0 default unchanged from 2026 to counter offshoring.

Max AGI levy

100

0

250

5

% max var GST

Maximum variable GST rate on AGI-intensive industries. Bound by §9.47 break-even cap; above ~120% creates "make-work" distortion. 100-120% is the defensible range.

Import leakage

25

10

50

2

%

Fraction of consumption leaking to imports rather than domestic GVA. Reduces the domestic tax base. Partly offset by §9.56 import levy collection.

Real GDP growth

3

0

6

0.5

% p.a.

Baseline growth from non-AGI sources. AGI productivity bonus added on top. Australian historical: 2-3% p.a.

AGI productivity bonus

2.0

0

5

0.1

pp/yr

Additional GDP growth from AGI deployment, scales with adoption. ICT 1995-2002: ~1.5pp. Higher values (3-5pp) plausible if AGI drives major advances in materials science, robotics, or new algorithms.

Investment response

2.0

0

5

0.5

% of GDP

Productivity-boom-driven capex. Generates direct jobs in Construction/Mfg/Prof svcs (~4500/$B GVA). ICT boom ~1.5pp; default 2pp moderate. Per §9.53.

Import levy collection

80

0

100

5

%

Fraction of variable GST successfully collected on AGI-intensive imports. Builds on the 2017 low-value-import GST regime. Higher values reduce the unprecedented-tax credibility risk.

Import basket factor

75

50

100

5

%

Imports' relative AGI-intensity vs domestic mix. Imports skew toward goods (lower labour-intensity × maxAGI). 75% reflects 60% goods + 40% services in import composition.

Profit shifting rate

7

0

20

1

%

Baseline % of company tax base lost to transfer pricing. Grows with AGI adoption (×(1+0.5×af)) since AGI/IP services are easier to misprice. ATO transfer-pricing audits suggest 5-10% currently.

Voluntary withdrawal

3

0

8

0.5

%

Fraction of employed workers exiting voluntarily when GDI provides an unconditional floor. UBI evidence (Finland, Stockton, Kenya): 2-5%. Negative fiscal direction.

Foreign firm share

30

0

50

5

%

Share of variable GST base from foreign-owned firms (ABS: ~25-30% of corporate value). Skews higher in mining, finance, retail, tech.

Foreign incidence to consumer

40

0

100

10

%

Fraction of variable GST on foreign firms passed through to AU consumers via prices. Fiscally neutral but distributionally regressive (consumer-borne). Per §9.59 redistributed across HH types via spend rate.

Other rev AGI sens

50

0

100

5

%

How sensitive non-major-tax revenue (excise, fees, royalties) is to AGI adoption. 0% = no AGI impact, 100% = full modelled adjustment per OTHER_REV_ITEMS agiEff values.

Demand elasticity

40

10

80

5

%

How much consumption volume rises when AGI deflation lowers prices. Higher values mean more productivity benefit translates to consumption (vs savings). Empirical: ~30-50%.

Levy demand elasticity

50

0

100

5

%

How much consumers substitute away from high-levy industries. Higher values reduce variable GST revenue but mean less production distortion. Per §9.42.

Adoption price sensitivity

60

0

100

5

%

When the AGI levy makes a deployment uneconomic vs human labour (per §9.47 break-even), how strongly is adoption suppressed? Higher values preserve more human jobs but lose efficiency.

Govt efficiency capture

70

20

80

5

%

How much of available AGI productivity gain government captures in service delivery. Higher values reduce govt expenditure but require political will. Combined with 23.4% weighted amenability → ~$162B/yr at peak.

Tax-free threshold

45

0

120

5

$K

Income below this earns no tax. Higher values increase progressivity but cost revenue. v12.0 default $45K reflects the GDI-supplemented baseline.

Bracket 2 ceiling

90

30

200

5

$K

Top end of bracket 2. Income from tax-free threshold to here is taxed at the bracket 2 rate.

Bracket 2 rate

30

0

50

1

%

Marginal rate on bracket 2. Most middle-income earners' marginal rate.

Bracket 3 ceiling

120

60

300

5

$K

Top end of bracket 3. Higher values reduce revenue from upper-middle earners.

Bracket 3 rate

35

0

50

1

%

Marginal rate on bracket 3. Affects upper-middle earners (~p70-p85 by ATO data).

Bracket 4 ceiling

150

100

500

5

$K

Top end of bracket 4. ATO data: ~5% of FT earners are above $150K.

Bracket 4 rate

40

0

60

1

%

Marginal rate on bracket 4. Affects high earners (~p85-p95 by ATO data).

Top rate

45

0

70

1

%

Marginal rate above bracket 4. Per §7.3, fiscal impact <$1B because few taxpayers above $150K. Mostly a political signal.

Macro / baseline (A)

5

Productivity mechanics (B)

4

Govt finance (C)

5

Fund (D)

5

Industry attributes (E)

18 × 7 = 126

Wage groups (F)

8 × 3 = 24

Govt categories (G)

8 × 2 = 16

Other-revenue items (H)

14 × 3 = 42

Transition curve (I)

6

Population drift (J)

3

Income uplift (K)

1

Household types (L)

28 types × ~14 attrs ≈ 390

Quintile basket (M)

3 × 18 + 3 + 3 thresholds ≈ 60

Spend rate thresholds (N)

5 thresholds + 5 rates = 10

2026 tax brackets (O)

5 brackets + 2% Medicare + LITO = ~7

IO model (P)

≈ 432

Post-hoc magic numbers (Q)

8

PSC defaults (R)

16

Total

≈ 1,160